Fairval

Notes on India equities, sectors and economy

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Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

China’s never had a corporate bond default!

Posted by fairval on April 9, 2012

It appears that no corporate has ever defaulted on corporate bonds in China!

Recently there was a buzz that a fibre maker Shandong Helon was about to default, but the latest news is – it will pay back some CPs which were due.

Helon’s 400 million yuan ($63.3 million) tranche of short-term commercial paper, which matures on April 15, will pay off principal with interest on that day, according to the announcement posted on the website of the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS), the platform for trading in China’s interbank bond market.

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Clean power investment exceeded thermal capex in 2011

Posted by fairval on March 1, 2012

Just read this amazing number: India invested $10.3 billion in cleantech in 2011, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. This could be more than capex in thermal power now. NTPC will add about 3500MW in FY12, which is about $3.5bn. Given that NTPC adds anywhere between 30-50% of India’s thermal capacity, it appears cleantech investments could have exceeded fossil energy investment.
The big action is in solar. Grid-connected solar investments increased 7 times over, going from $600 million in 2010 to $4.2 billion in 2011. These solar investments moved the country from 18 MW of installed solar power in 2010 to a total of 277 MW installed at the end of 2011. 500-700 MW may be installed in 2012, the report noted.
$4.6 billion was invested in wind energy,. The country added a record 2,827 MW (compared to 2,140 MW of new installations in 2010).

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Dismal H1 results

Posted by fairval on December 1, 2011

The result season got over a while ago, this is a delayed post. The chart shows how poor H1 results have been. It is likely listed companies will see earnings decline in FY12. This does happen too often in India. The last time this may have happened was in FY02, when markets used to trade at 11-13x forward.

Could we see a repeat of that? So far, markets are holding at around 17x FY12 expected EPS. But this could well be the upper limit of trading values for the next 6 months. Right now, no one has a clue on FY13 numbers. Typically, at this time, people will budget a 15-20% growth in earnings in FY13.

So it really depends which way expectations go by around April’12. If by that time market things FY13 will also see degrowth, or less than 10% earnings growth, then we could see valuations correcting to lower end of the Sensex trading range.

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Is corruption one reason behind high inflation?

Posted by fairval on May 23, 2011

I know this sounds bizarre, but think there is some merit in this line of thought. Inflation has been high since last 4-5 years. Of course, the other factors like demand supply mismatch etc have some role. The ‘overheating’ word so loved by economists, whatever it means..

But consider this. Corruption has clearly shot up dramatically in recent years. The 2G scam is the obvious example. Also, look at declared networths of sitting MP/MLA when they stand for re-election. As a group, their income are the fastest growing lot, going up, not in percentages, but multiples.And this is the honestly declared figure. Imagine what they dont declare..

Coming back to inflation.. While kickbacks are possibly non-inflationery, outright bribes could be inflation causing. Check this: In Uttar Pradesh, the abominable state with the largest population in India, it now takes about Rs 2.5 lakh to get a permit to ply an autorickshaw. About 4 years ago, in the Mulayam Singh government, this figure was Rs 20,000.

The point is this: If Mayawati (the UP chief minister) wants the rickshaw driver to pay a sum 10x higher than what he would have paid 4 years ago, she’s got to allow some inflation in rickshaw rates to let the poor fellow get his payback. And so it would go in other cases.

Look at it another way. A chief minister in a large Indian state perhaps aims to make about $1bn per year. We have 20 plus states, some are smaller, so lets say $15bn is what all the chief ministers make put together. Their ministers and party could be making an equivalent amount. So thats $30bn at state level.The central government and the party at the centre should be making an equal amount – another $30bn. This adds up to $60bn, annually. Admittedly an anecdotal figure, but one which is not wrong by an order of magnitude, maybe a percentage here and there. Now, there’s got to be a parallel corruption in the private sector – take sectors like real estate, oil, other kinds of mining, telecom etc.

We would easily be looking at an annual corruption figure of about $100bn. This is about 7% of Indian GDP in FY11. You invest this in the economy, take an ICOR of 4, this boosts subsequent GDP growth rate by almost 2% per annum.

So corruption could be doing 2 things – slowing down GDP growth rate pretty significantly, also adding to inflation.

(To clarify this adding to inflation point, it could be happening in two key ways: politicians looking the other way to inflation, inefficiencies due to underinvestment)

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Hello world!

Posted by fairval on November 11, 2009

Fairval has so far been on Blogger.com. Thinking of migrating to WordPress. Blogger is very erratic lately.

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IPL – BCCI flexes its financial muscle again

Posted by fairval on January 28, 2008

BCCI makes a billion dollars in IPL deal, and while franchisees have their task cut out

With the high profile sale of 8 teams of the Indian Premier League (IPL), the business of sport takes a giant leap. So far, there was perhaps only one entity in India engaged in serious money making out of sport – and that was Board of Control of Cricket in India (BCCI). Now, almost overnight, eight new corporate entities will emerge in Indian sport.

From this exercise, the biggest winner remains BCCI. The way the deal is structured, BCCI seems set to make almost riskless income of around $1bn from IPL. This income will primarily come from the $723mn or so that the 8 team owners have bid to own the teams. BCCI will also get a minority share of TV rights, ranging from 20% in first 2 years, to 40% from year 6 onwards. BCCI will get 40% of tournament sponsorship money.

BCCI or more specifically the entity IPL that it has set up has largely an advisory role. There is no particular fixed cost it incurs. IPL is supposed to do things like award commercial rights, two big legs of which – the TV rights and the team ownership – are done. It also has to set up tournament schedule, provide umpires and match officials (the frachisee bears the cost).

Compare this with say a hedge fund or a private equity partnership and you realize how good the deal is for BCCI. The general partners get a 2% fees and 20-30% of profits. Here BCCI gets 20-40% of net incomes from TV and tournament rights, and it gets a whole lot of money from the teams for the right to play. Clearly BCCI benefits a lot from its monopolistic hold on the game.

The 8 teams take all the financial risk of making IPL successful. They have to bear 7 items of cost as per IPL franchise prospectus. The first one is franchise fee, which they have committed to now. These range from Rs 30 crore to Rs 45 crore per year. Next is player salaries. Each team will have 16 players, which in total could cost Rs 16-20 crore. Players are to be bought in an auction, which is yet to be done. Top players will reportedly get upto Rs 1.5 crore each. Total cost of players and their support staff could be between Rs 20-25 crore. The franchisees also bear stadium costs and matchday costs. The other 3 items of costs are totally franchisee related like costs of their own staff, offices and other overheads.

Total annual costs for the franchisees could be around Rs 70 crore or more. Take 15% cost of capital, then teams have to make another Rs 40-50 crore or so to justify investment. This means, total revenues have to exceed Rs 110-120 crore.

On the revenue side, the franchisees will earn at two levels – central revenues, share from BCCI, and local revenues. BCCI will share major portions of TV rights and sponsorship rights – this is the central revenue share. A rough estimate suggests these could amount to Rs 35-40 crore per annum. These revenues are largely fixed upfront, and distributed equitably amongst teams.

This means the franchisees need around Rs 40 crore per annum of revenues from local sources to break even, and Rs 80-90 crore from local revenues to cover cost of capital. The prospectus lists 10 sources of ‘local’ revenues, some of which will be marginal. The two large parts of local revenues could be gate collections, and advertising in local stadia. Team shirt sponsorship could be a big item too, but perhaps some of the winners like Vijay Mallya would like to put their own brands on the team kits. Items like merchandise would not amount to much.

Which team does best may depend on quite a few variables – ticket rates, attendance, player costs, and finally, how the team plays. Tickets will be steeply priced, and if stadiums fill up, then break even seems possible, but it is hard to see franchisees cover cost of capital in the first 1-2 years. It is not clear yet if any team can be hugely profitable unless it can develop significantly streams like merchandising, and franchisee media platforms.

The IPL prospectus also provides a lot of data on valuations of sports teams. It suggests that these command valuation akin to premium brands – a Price/Sales ratio of 3-5 on an average. If we take a Price to sales of 4, then the Mumbai team, which went for $112 mn needs to show annual revenues of $28mn, or Rs 110 crore. This would perhaps need Rs 75-80 crore from local revenues. Any valuation gains may come only when revenues significantly exceed this.

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PE and FDI

Posted by fairval on August 28, 2007

An interesting statement an in interview in a business paper yday – PE accounts for 65% of FDI in India! Amazing

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