Fairval

Notes on Indian equities, sectors and economy

Anirvan says large slowdown ahead

Posted by fairval on September 30, 2008

For those who dont know Anirvan Banerjee – he is perhaps the leading global expert on business cycles. He heads research at something called Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) at New York. If you want to know where the global economy is headed, then one of the best people to go to is Anirvan. And he just said something, which should make all of us in India very concerned.

This is something he said to a paper (DNA) yesterday

A growth forecast for India?
In India’s case the trend growth rate is so high that we are really not talking about a recession but a slowdown.

Instead of negative growth which marks a recession, we are talking about less positive growth — a slowdown. But according to our Indian leading index, India is headed into its worst slowdown in at least a decade.

Mark the words – worst slowdown in a decade! So go look back 10 years. THe worst period in India’s last 10 years was the FY01-03 period, which say the lows for both GDP growth and industry growth. The lowest GDP growth in the last 10 years was 3.8% in FY03 and the lowest IIP growth was 2.7% in FY02.

I dont know if we are headed that low, but clearly the economic data and corporate sales and net profit data is going to take a sharp dip.

Advertisements

One Response to “Anirvan says large slowdown ahead”

  1. niraj said

    Nice blog.Please update daily as your thoughs make an interesting reading.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

 
%d bloggers like this: