Fairval

Notes on Indian equities, sectors and economy

FY12 9m Sensex trading history – downside held so far

Posted by fairval on December 30, 2011

In Feb’11, we had posted the following trading range for the Sensex for FY12 (see post ‘  Market View: Sensex range 15.5K to 18K for FY12‘)

SensexMatrix for FY12

For the first 9 months ending today, the Sensex has held very well above the lower limit of this range.

Sensex trading performance over Apr-Dec'11

Counting today’s close at around 15454, and 184 sessions including Friday, the Sensex has closed below the lower end of the range only 4 times. On the other hand, the Sensex breached the higher end of the forecasted range fully 92 times, or about half the time. This breach was highly front ended. Between 1 April and 4 August, or for about 87 straight trading sessions, the Sensex closed above the higher end. In the 97 trading sessions since then, it has breached this range only 5 times.

So what to make of it? In Feb’11 we were more bearish than most market parcipants. Other forecasts were still in the 18K to 21K range for FY12. While they were right in the initial period, the market came down to our range finally.

Currently, market expectations are in the 13K to 16K range for 2012. In other words, market participants are more bearish than our current range.

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One Response to “FY12 9m Sensex trading history – downside held so far”

  1. Munish Hingorani said

    Good call! I am not sure whether you make these forecasts yearly but I remember that back in 2007 you had forecasted a much lower value for the sensex when it seemed to be running away.

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