Fairval

Notes on Indian equities, sectors and economy

A new method to calculate relative PE

Posted by fairval on January 17, 2013

When analysts make their price targets, what PE to use (this being the most common metric) is often quite arbitrary. We have used the following method in a recent report. This is a report on Sona, an auto ancillary. About 45% of its sales are to Maruti, so i decided to derive its PE in relation to Maruti.

Sona should clearly trade at a discount to Maruti, but how much? To give a method to this, we compared cumulative profits over last 10 years. This should be a long enough period to arrive at a assessment of relative profit generating (and therefore wealth creation) abilities of the two businesses.

Here is what we got. FY03 is indexed to 100. Adding up profits, Maruti made about 3x the net profit as compared to Sona. (This is not an absolute number, but an indexed number).  It seems fair to say that Maruti’s PE should be 3x Sona. Brokers currently value Maruti at around 18x FY14. Sona could well get 6x FY14.

If this were true, Sona appears a good buy at current price. And with 5% dividend yield currently, downside is protected.

A metric for relative PE calculation

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

 
%d bloggers like this: