Fairval

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Are we in a recession?

Posted by fairval on September 18, 2013

Just what is growing in the Indian economy now? This is becoming an increasing hard question to answer. Latest data shows, even for the so called defensive sectors – FMCG and pharma – growth has pretty much stalled.

Check this: An ICICI report says:

Domestic revenues of Indian FMCG plays grew just 10.6% in Q1FY14 – the slowest in the past 16 quarters.

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Also, if you see the chart, volume growth was barely 2.5% in this quarter. Of the 10.5%, 8% is explained by price rise.

Similarly, my partner Anil Khanna sent me this AIOCD-AWACs data, which shows pharma sector grew just 1.1% in value terms in August. MAT (moving annual total) growth is 8.2%.

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(Souce: AIOCD AWACs)

In volume terms, pharma market was down 7.5% in August, suggesting an inflation factor of around 8%, similar to the FMCG inflation. I don’t have MAT volume data, but if we apply an 8% inflation to MAT data, it suggests pharma sector is flat over the last 12 months.

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